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AGH DRILLING, OIL, GAS


Change in the structure of electricity generation in the USA, China, Japan and the EU, and a forecast of electricity consumption.

Tomasz Cieślik

Vol. 34, no. 1 (2017), s. 291-301, [1]

Full text: pdfPDF

Abstract:

This article analyses changes in the structure of electricity production in countries such as the USA, China, Japan, the EU and Poland. In China, a sharp increase in generation capacity and electricity production may 14 be noticed if the data from 2015 and 1990 is compared. The increase in China’s electricity production is associated with a continuous growth in CO₂ emission, contrary to the situation in the United States, where, despite an increase in energy consumption and an increase in generation capacity, CO₂ emission has been falling since 2005. The largest decrease in CO₂ emission without inhibiting the growth of electricity production and electricity consumption can be seen in the EU. Models of consumption have been determined based on the collected data such as: temperature, dummy variables and electricity consumption per hour within three months. The aim was to establish the best regression model and compare it to the neural network models using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

DOI: dx.doi.org/10.7494/drill.2017.34.1.291